Are We Nearly Doomed Yet? Part 2.

While I’m at it, here’s the second instalment of a (sort of) yearly series keeping tabs on anything looming up that might just be the end of our civilisation. Since Part 1 in December 2009, there have been a number of events that, while undoubtedly calamitous for thousands of people across the globe, have fortunately not been of the sheer scale that would categorise them as threats to all of humanity.

During 2010, there were big earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, Turkey, China and Indonesia which killed almost 250,000 people, mostly in Haiti. In 2011, so far there have been over 14,000 deaths, mostly in Japan (the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami) but also in Christchurch, New Zealand, and in Burma. In 2010, there were also a number of big volcanic eruptions, including Eyjafjallajökul in Iceland, Mount Merapi in Indonesia (causing hundreds of deaths there) and various other places in the world, such as Ecuador, Guatamala and the Kamchatka peninsula in Russia.

There have also been massive floods (such as Pakistan in summer 2010, Queensland, Australia in winter 2010-11) and a heat wave in continental Europe which contributed to a series of wildfires in Russia during the summer of 2010, factors in these events being a “freezing” of the jet stream in mid-2010 and La Nina conditions towards the end of that year.

None of these events, tragic and hugely disruptive that many of them were, constituted an actual threat to civilisation.

Anyway, what’s threatening us at the moment?

1. Asteroids. A few small ones have whizzed past Earth over the past year or so, according to NASA. In November this year Asteroid 2005 YU55, which is a respectable 400 metres in size, will pass within 0.85 lunar distances, but won’t be a threat. There’s another big near-Earth asteroid – 99942 Apophis – which Russian scientists have recently suggested might actually hit us in 2036, but NASA says no. So unless something huge and unexpected appears in the firmament this year, I conclude that we’re safe from killer meteors, for the time being.

2. Supervolcanoes. There have been several articles this year, such as this one in National Geographic, about the land over the great magma bubble of Yellowstone rising by as much as 10 inches between 2007 and 2010. However, as this and other articles explain, according to current theory, the ground may rise and fall for thousands of years without actually erupting, as the molten rock shifts up and then sideways, almost as if the magma chamber is slowly breathing. It doesn’t look as though the famous National Park will blow up any time soon, which is the main thing.

3. Everything else. Seems quiet enough – no especially terrifying new viruses, rogue nanotech outbreaks, escalating nuclear arms races or incipient alien invasions have been brought to my attention recently. Unless one of these scenarios is quietly brewing, out of sight of the world’s media, or an equally scary but completely unprecedented “black swan” type event is waiting in the wings, it looks as though civilisation will make it through to 2012 unscathed.

Ah yes… 2012. A bumper edition of Are We Nearly Doomed Yet? is on the cards, when we approach the start to that famously portentous year. The Mayan calendar running out, Planet Earth likewise coming to some sort of a sticky end, and Planet Nibiru making its long-foretold flying visit to our normally uneventful little corner of the Solar System – oh my. Time to get set for some truly excellent, weapons-grade weirdness.

In the meantime, that’s quite enough doom for this year. It’s likely to be the hottest April on record here in the UK, so we’re told, and it has been a lovely Easter weekend here in west London, with the sun shining and flowers blossoming all over the place. I’m off for a nice evening stroll, while the warm weather lasts.

Just Back from Tokyo

Blogging has been non-existent for some time, and part of the reason is that I’ve been over in Japan for the last couple of weeks or so, visiting in-laws and seeing the sights in Tokyo. It has been a good trip, despite the very frequent aftershocks they are experiencing at the moment, at least one or two a day, which is an unusual situation – last time I was in Tokyo, there was only one barely perceptible jolt during my entire 10-day visit. It’s now possible to receive earthquake alerts via one’s mobile phone or over the TV, and it can be a little nerve-wracking when the warning sounds and you wait for the floor and walls to start shaking, not really knowing how big the imminent quake is going to be.

Some observations on the situation in Japan, following the recent catastrophic earthquake and tsunami:

- Firstly, I’ve been impressed, as always, by the ability of the Japanese to respond to disasters of this kind. Watching TV footage on NHK News of the clear-up operations in the coastal areas pulverised by last month’s tsunami, I’ve seen roads being cleared, ships salvaged, rubble being sorted and temporary kitchens mobilised to provide anything from hot noodles to fresh pizza. Overall, the situation remains dire, but the people are resourceful, determined and organised.

- In addition, the relief efforts are a testament to the strengths of a developed economy and to modern technology and communications. Environmentalist Bill McKibben thinks otherwise, as per this article in the Guardian, but Tim Worstall very effectively demolishes Bill’s shaky argument here. As Tim points out, “it’s multiple sources, spread across a variety of geographical regions, which provides security of supply of anything. Yes, food and power included.” Factors that make the difference include trade, modern networks and supply chains, also an abundance of electric power and fossil-fuelled vehicles.

- Despite the Fukushima Daichi nuclear power plant being steamrollered by a once-in-a-thousand-years monster tsunami, and although the incident has been costly and dangerous and is still ongoing, no-one there has yet died from the effects of radiation. In fact, nuclear power has killed remarkably few people, and even the Chernobyl incident directly killed less than 50 individuals. To put that into perspective, according to the World Health Organisation, nearly 3,500 people worldwide die in traffic accidents every single day of the year.

One thing I had been looking forward to, was going to Japan in one of Air France’s big new Airbus A380s and enjoying the novelty of travelling in a double-decker aeroplane. Unfortunately, with only a few days to go, the airline switched to Boeing 777-200s for their Paris-Narita route, and will resume the A380 service later this year. The twin-engined Triple Seven is a great aircraft, I should say – to date, it has been extremely reliable and safe – so I’m not exactly complaining; it also has the honour of being the first entirely computer-designed commercial aircraft (according to Wikipedia), which as a technophile I find very appealing. But I still wanted to travel in the A380!

I’ve also just finished reading George Monbiot’s 2006 book Heat, where he has something to say about “love miles”, the distances (sometimes vast) we travel to visit family and friends across the world; what he says is they have to stop! In fact the book itself is interesting and, I thought, well-written (will probably review it at some point), even if based on a catastrophist fantasy – imagine, if you will, an alternative universe where global warming caused by man-made CO2 emissions was threatening the world, and where we had to dramatically reduce said emissions for civilisation to survive. Then imagine that in this alternative world aviation had to be cut back by over 96 percent, and think about the heartache, misery and disruption this would cause – no more visits to family and friends on the other side of the globe, no more holidays in the Maldives, no more airmiles, and no more “love miles”. This would be an excellent scenario for a rather chilling SF novel.

Thankfully, I live in the real universe, where the man-made global warming terror is starting to fade, and where aviation for the masses remains a welcome reality despite the high cost of fuel and stupidities like the Air Passenger Duty. Reflecting on this fact, I raised my plastic glass of Air France white wine in an ironic but heartfelt salute, last week, somewhere over northern Siberia. To Heat – long may it remain science fiction! To airmiles and “love miles” – long may we continue to amass (and afford) them!

Next time, I might even get to ride in an Airbus A380, at last.

(For anyone wishing to donate money to those affected by the recent earthquake and tsunami in Japan, by the way, the Japanese Red Cross web page, with details on how to do so, is here. You might also wish to donate to ShelterBox, a UK-based disaster relief charity that has been of great help to Japan in recent weeks.)